Somalia: An Epic Fail Visible From Space

While doing my daily Google Earth-Wikipedia procrastination session the other day, I happened upon a region of the world I had not kept watch on for a few weeks: the Horn of Africa. According to reports from the region, Islamist militant groups have re-taken nearly all of southern Somalia, an area that had recently been put under centralized government control for the first time since 1991. Here’s a little history lesson: in 1991, an alliance of Somali warlords combined their forces and overthrew the country’s longtime dictator, Mohamed Siad Barre. However, once they had ousted the existing government, a feud erupted over who would take leadership over the country. This quickly devolved into an intense civil war, with multiple factions gunning for the capital, Mogadishu. It quickly became the most violent and unstable country in the world, and remained in a constant state of warfare for fifteen years. At one point, the United States tried to send a strike force into Mogadishu to arrest one prominent warlord, Mohamed Farrah Aidid. The mission went horribly wrong, and several U.S. troops were killed and a Black Hawk helicopter was downed in the center of Mogadishu; this infamous incident became known as the Black Hawk Down mission.

Until 2006, Somalia was officially without a government. It had become a poster child for failed states, rife with violence, panicked emigration, and famine. An “official” Somali government was set up, with some international backing, but they could only hold on to the town of Baidoa, over two hundred kilometers northwest of the capital. Then, in June of 2006, a group called the Islamic Courts Union won a series of victories in the countryside and mounted a major assault on Mogadishu, taking it in its entirety. The Islamic Courts Union was not like other armed groups: they followed fundamentalist Sunni Islam, imposed Shariah Law on the populace of their territories, and maintained connections with al-Qaeda. For a time, they posed a major threat to the interests of all nations operating in the region, as Somalia threatened to become another Afghanistan. However, in late December of that same year, neighboring Ethiopia poured tons of military personnel and hardware into the Somali Transitional Federal Government, allowing them to fight the ICU on multiple fronts. They advanced toward Mogadishu, winning it back from the Islamists, before turning south towards Kismayo and routing them out of the country.

I remember that war so very fondly. School was out for Christmas break, and I would wake up every morning and check for the latest troop movements, territorial changes, and casualty estimates. Ah, those were the days, my friend. What a deliciously twisted childhood I had...

Now, however, I read that the Islamists have regrouped under another name: al-Shabaab, which is Arabic for “The Youth”. They have effectively re-taken about 99% of the land under TFG control, leaving them only with Mogadishu, Baidoa, and a small border crossing into Ethiopia. Much of the Islamists’ funding has secretly come from Eritrea, Ethiopia’s sworn enemy, simply to carry the fight between those two countries to a new front.

Also, beginning with the loss of government in 1991, separatist and autonomist movements have formed in several regions to ensure their own security. The first to do so, and undoubtedly the most successful to date, was Somaliland. An alliance of government and military leaders moved early in the conflict to detach this reason from the rest of Somalia and declare their own state. They, unlike the others, have historical precedent for this: while the rest of Somalia used to be an Italian colony, Somaliland was a British colony. The leaders of the Somaliland movement have, by and large, kept the violence out of their territory, and their citizens have grown quite attached to them. The only problem is, Somalia and the international community still recognize Somaliland as part of Somalia. If Somalia were ever to calm down, a re-integration would be attempted, which carries with it the possibility of throwing Somalia back into chaos.

Somaliland is not alone in this respect. Another region, Puntland, has mounted an autonomist movement, which stops short of declaring outright independence. While they do declare their allegiance to the TFG, they have their own government, civil institutions, and standing army. However, the TFG does not recognize this group either, despite their allied status. Another region broke off in the midst of the conflict in 2006, declaring autonomy under the name Galmudug. Yet another autonomous region was formed last year, as a result of both a border dispute between Somaliland and Puntland as well as clan rivalries. This new entity is called Maakhir. And finally, earlier this year, the Dulbahante clan, noted for its fierce independence and anti-colonial attitude, declared its own autonomous region in the south of Maakhir, called Northland.

All of these separatist regions and Islamist influences pose great dangers to the TFG. In its current fragile state, it is a miracle that it has survived this long. The president and prime minister of the TFG have both been targeted in multiple assassination attempts, often occurring right outside their homes. The government has also come under fire internationally for not effectively combating piracy, which has increased exponentially in the waters near Somalia. All predictions look dire for the world’s most unstable state, just as they have for the last seventeen years.