Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Security Implications of the Financial Meltdown

Question: Is the current financial crisis a global security issue?

Yes, the economic predicament unoubtedly represents a security threat. Any way you look at it, the conditions created by a weak national economy provide fertile breeding grounds for all kinds of drastic threats. Our economy is the backbone of our society, and a financial collapse signals less business, a drop in services, and a significant change in our way of living, which have always been dominant preconditions for the incitement of mass radicalism and violence.

Let’s look at historical examples. Did the Soviet Union’s economic overstraining in the late-eighties represent a security threat? Yes, it did, and it ended with the collapse of the Soviet government and its allies, and the loss of the Cold War. While the immediate threat was believed to be in Afghanistan, where the military was suffering an embarrassingly high casualty rate, the consequences of a prolonged anti-guerrilla war and overproduction to keep up with rivals were not explored in an economic sense, and the resultant inability of the Soviet government to keep public services running led to widespread discontent that reached the highest levels. Soon, a coup was attempted by top military generals, followed by a general disintegration of the public structure and, finally, the dissolution of the state. As late as the eighties, economic conditions, coupled with the incentive of greater freedoms elsewhere, triggered the end of one of the greatest powers the world had ever seen.

The spiraling trends of national economies greatly hinder their ability to combat crime and terror. Defense and law enforcement budgets become harder to maintain, and new technologies are put on hold. Meanwhile, the black market, which operates in large part independently of the world market, is not as harshly affected by the collapse, and those who partake in it gain ground against their competitors. Additionally, a weak market tends to generate crime, both organized and unorganized, placing an even heavier burden on law enforcement.

In the long term, economic recession, inflation, and food shortages give rise to political radicalism, which represent a severe internal security crisis. Food shortages, labor disgruntlement, and a prolonged war allowed the Bolsheviks to come to power in Russia in 1917, and severe inflation and unemployment gave voice to the ideas of the Nazi party in Weimar-era Germany. Though the United States has historically been largely devoid of radical politics (in seats of power, at least), there always exists the possibility that someone could capitalize on the moods of the time to promote an irrational set of ideas, leading only to greater damage.

In the government’s response to the financial crisis, all resources must be considered, including those of security. The Defense Department, intelligence bureaus, law enforcement bodies, and anyone else whose goal is to maintain a safe, functioning state, must consider the effects of the latest activities and calculate how best to respond. We need on our side the best and brightest minds to sort out this mess if we want to uphold the current world order.

No comments: